Suburban voters, a group that makes up about half of the U.S. electorate and mirrors the nation’s racial diversity, are a key battleground in American elections. In 2020, President Biden defeated Donald Trump in suburban areas by about six points. Now, Kamala Harris is making her mark in these crucial communities.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll analysis shows that Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, has overtaken Trump among suburban and middle-income voters. This shift happened after President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid on July 21, and Harris took the lead in these key demographic groups. Although the race remains tight, her rise has breathed new life into Democratic hopes for the November 5 election.
Previously, suburban voters were leaning toward Trump, with a 43% to 40% advantage over Biden in June and July. Biden’s struggle to energize voters was apparent. However, since Harris launched her campaign in July, she has steadily gained support. Polling from September and October shows Harris leading Trump among suburban voters, 47% to 41%, a significant nine-point swing in her favor.
Similarly, in households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year, Harris has also gained ground. Trump once led Biden in this group, but now Harris leads Trump 45% to 43%. This shift comes from the same nine-point swing away from Trump, who had previously carried this group by five points in 2020.
Despite these gains, Trump is still viewed more favorably on key issues. In an October poll, 46% of voters believed Trump was better equipped to handle the economy, compared to 38% for Harris. Trump also leads on immigration and crime. He has frequently reassured his supporters that he would protect suburban communities from crime and illegal immigration, which he blames the Biden administration for mishandling.
Harris, on the other hand, has focused her messaging on growing the middle class and protecting democracy. Pollsters note that her emphasis on affordability has helped her narrow Trump’s lead on economic issues like inflation. Her campaign pledges to support middle-class families appear to resonate, especially with more affluent suburban voters, who may be feeling slightly more optimistic about the economy.
David Wasserman, a political analyst, believes that voter turnout in suburban, urban, and rural areas could still play a decisive role in the election. Democratic-leaning cities and Republican-leaning rural areas may ultimately be the tipping point.
Voters Are Taking Notice
Some Harris supporters told Reuters they weren’t paying much attention to her before she entered the race, but have become more supportive as they learned more. In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in early October, Harris holds a slight edge over Trump among registered voters, leading 46% to 43%.
However, national polls may not tell the whole story. The election’s outcome will likely depend on a handful of battleground states, including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Georgia, where the race remains close.
Even if Harris wins the middle, it may not guarantee victory. Hillary Clinton, for example, won the popular vote by nearly three million in 2016 and carried suburban counties by one point, yet lost the election when Trump flipped six key states.
Voices from the Suburbs
Sheila Lester, an 83-year-old Harris supporter from Peoria, Arizona, says she was initially convinced Trump would beat Biden. However, when the Democratic Party united around Harris, she felt more optimistic, particularly because Harris could become the first female U.S. president. Lester, who identifies as middle class, supports Harris for her strong stance on abortion rights and her focus on middle-class growth.
Maricopa County, where Lester lives, was pivotal in Biden’s 2020 win after flipping from Trump’s column in 2016.
Karen Davidson, also 83 and living in a Detroit suburb, says she wasn’t very familiar with Harris before she became the Democratic nominee. Now, Davidson admires Harris’ resilience, particularly in standing up to critics. Having worked in an industry where women were often sidelined, Davidson sees Harris’ strength as crucial for leading the country.
Meanwhile, Kevin Garcia, a 24-year-old grocery store employee from Pooler, Georgia, is relieved that Biden stepped aside. He prefers Harris’ focus on small businesses over Trump’s economic policies. Like Arizona, Georgia narrowly went to Biden in 2020, and Garcia is hopeful Harris can maintain that momentum.
As the election approaches, Harris’ ability to hold onto these suburban and middle-income voters may determine the outcome of this highly competitive race.